ANU modelling shows how the 2016 budget really affects your hip pocket

As reported in the Canberra Times on 12 May, Australia’s poorest families will be hardest hit when all the measures factored into last week’s budget are implemented, modelling by the Australian National University shows.

Zombie taxes will hurt the poor

Independent modelling shows lower income families will be least well-off under current budget plans.

Single-parent families in the poorest 20 per cent of households will be worst affected by the 2018-19 financial year, mainly through scheduled cuts to family tax benefits and hikes in tobacco excise.

Those families will be $1407 worse off a year, the equivalent of 3.6 per cent of average incomes for that group.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, on the campaign trail in Penrith with one-year-old Freya Brown, said last week “the budget is very fair”.

Couples with children in the poorest fifth of households will lose $1146, or 2.7 per cent of average incomes, should all budget measures be successfully introduced.

By contrast, relatively well-off couples with children in the second-top income quintile will be $392 a year better off by 2018-19, modelling of the budget’s impact by ANU’s Centre for Social Research and Methods found.

“The analysis … clearly shows that the proposed measures in the 2016-17 budget would impact low income families with children more significantly than other families,” the report says. “The losses for the middle and top income groups are proportionately much less than low income families.”

It concluded the budget will have a “regressive impact”.